The Houston Chronicle has a couple of new polls out today by Zogby International (10/22-24, likely voters). Let’s have a look.
TX-07:
Michael Skelly (D): 41
John Culberson (R-inc): 48
(MoE: ±4.9%)
TX-22:
Nick Lampson (D-inc): 36
Pete Olson (R): 53
(MoE: ±4.9%)
The 7th CD poll seems reasonable enough — Skelly is running a strong race, but this is a very tough (R+16) district. The numbers from the Lampson race, though, seem a bit hard to believe. It’s possible that Zogby has a bad sample here (this is Zogby we’re talking about, after all), and the 22nd is one of the fastest-growing districts in the nation. A recent Benenson Strategy Group poll had Lampson and Olson tied at 42% each, an improvement over a July internal that had Lampson behind by 45-37. That’s still well below any kind of comfort threshold, so I’m having a hard time feeling good about this one.
Over in the 7th, the Skelly campaign also released a new internal poll of their own.
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (10/22-23, likely voters, 9/7-9 in parens):
Michael Skelly (D): 44 (37)
John Culberson (R-inc): 49 (44)
Drew Parks: 3 (n/a)
Undecided: 4 (13)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Skelly has gained quite a bit of ground since the start of his campaign, but this one looks to be a tough nut to crack, indeed. The full polling memo is available below the fold.
….does indicate that Lampson may be headed towards undeserved defeat, but I’d still be surprised if it was double-digits. I can’t see the incumbent Lampson underperforming Tom DeLay’s 2004 challenger (Morrison???).
Lampson’s 2006 upset was an anomaly because it was under the shadow of Tom Delay. Now that the ‘Hammer”s gone, the district is returning to the GOP. No surprise.
I don’t know nothin’ about embedding videos, but here’s the link to the BOR front page with a story on TV ads in Texas races, and the video.
This one is pure negative campaigning, you know, the stuff that often works very well.
Pete Olsen is being investigated for old fashioned voter fraud. Records indicate that one year Olsen voted in Virgina, then Connecticut, then Virginia again. Final frame has Olsen’s mug shot beside Tom DeLay’s.
http://www.burntorangereport.com/
I can’t understand why anyone pays any attention to them anymore. Republican pollster Strategic Vision has a better record than Zogby. For one thing Zogby almost always tremendously underpolls Democrats, in 2006 he had Herb Kohl ahead by only single digits at one time, against an unknown candidate. He overstated Asa Hutchinson’s support in Arkansas, keeping a toss up well past all other pollsters and still had him performing some four points stronger than he actually did. He’s consistently had one of the worst records of any pollster these last four cycles, down the board. I don’t understand why anybody pays him to do polls anymore. Most emmbarassingly, in 2000 he predicted Hillary Clinton would narrowly lose to Rick Lazio based on his late-election polling. She went on to win 55-43, and its very difficult to fuck up a race that badly.
That being said Lampson has run a lackluster campaign from the beginning and been plagued with health problems. I think he is behind by single-digits. People need to recognize that he is no Chet Edwards, or Jim Matheson. He’s not fit to hold this kind of district. It’s more Republican than the one he lost to far-right extremist Ted Poe in 2004, and Poe hadn’t run an actual campaign in twelve years and was just some County Judge from outer Harris. There was no excuse that year for Lampson’s ten point loss. No he expects to hold the same kind of district with the same kind of campaign? Nah uh. I knew this seat was gone the moment Shelly Sekula-Gibbs got 46% of the vote as a write in candidate against him. As a write in candidate, despite DeLay’s scandals, despite being massively outspent, and frankly, Lampson’s lackluster pace this year, poor fundraising, and late start to the campaign season have not given me any reason to think otherwise. Not to mention Olson has all the early campaigning and mo from his big primary win over Sekula-Gibbs.
It’s really not gonna be bloodless for the D’s this year, is it?
Oh, well… at least it’s just two of the three high profile scandal seats from ’06 (FL-16 and TX-22) that look doomed… neither Mahoney nor Lampson really won those seats on their own merits. (As was mentioned in the comments, Sekula-Gibbs did disconcertingly well as a write-in candidate… as did Joe Negron in Florida). At least Zack Space and Chris Carney more or less earned their seats by waging actual campaigs.
I just hope Paul Kanjorski pulls it out. PA-11 is the only Dem district on the chopping block this year that we really, REALLY don’t deserve to lose. (Not because Kanjorski’s a tremendous candidate, but because the economic straits in Northeast PA are so dire this year that it’s unsconscionable to me that a repugnant demagogue like Lou Barletta is even viable).
And I still take issue with LA-06 being a classified as a tossup at this point… haven’t we seen at least two polls showing Cazayoux with a comfortable edge?
The district is changing really fast and it’s that REpublican. Lampson may lose but I’m betting on him eking oout a very narrow win, partly because Obama’s margin among minority professionals who live in Sugarland and Missouri city.
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…
KS-03 isn’t surprising that it’s moderately close. Moore did draw a good GOP challenger.
I think we know as little about TX-22 now as we did before the Zogby poll. I would like to see a real poll. Too bad if it’s close and people start giving up on the merits of this poll.